ACUS02 KWNS 020657
SWODY2
SPC AC 020656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST SUN DEC 02 2012
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
BE A MAIN COMPONENT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN PROGGED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD.
AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY
INVOF SRN MANITOBA -- IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES ENEWD
WITH TIME...REACHING JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF EWD-MOVING CONVECTION -- MAINLY THROUGH
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL N OF ROUGHLY THE OH
RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER SW HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NWD MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS -- FOCUSED ON THE OZARKS REGION.
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...AS THE COMBINATION OF
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AVERAGING ONLY AROUND 30 KT APPEARS UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT
WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS. WHILE SMALL HAIL OR A LOCALLY STRONGER GUST
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EVEN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY APPEARS
UNWARRANTED ATTM.
..GOSS.. 12/02/2012
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