DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU DEC 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH /CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR COASTAL SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN BAJA/ OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS A COLD
FRONT ACCELERATES/SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS...
MODEST/INITIAL NATURE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RAMIFICATIONS ON ASSOCIATED NEAR-SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION...WILL PRECLUDE A MORE CERTAIN/CONSIDERABLE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS A POTENTIAL UPPER TROUGH/JET STREAK OTHERWISE EMERGES
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS STEADY HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR AND THE EXIT
REGION OF STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL JET REACHES THE PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AN ADVANCING FRONT WILL INTERCEPT RELATIVELY MODEST
MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND THE SURROUNDING SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL TX THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

WHILE MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MEAGER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST/NORTHWEST TX AND THE SURROUNDING HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING OK
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS AND PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO. PENDING THE
EXACT DEGREE/EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...A FEW RELATIVELY
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ELEVATED
STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD/INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REST
OF KS/OK TO THE OZARKS FRIDAY...WITH SOME TSTMS POSSIBLY REMAINING
NEAR SURFACE-BASED FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR THE COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX. WHILE SOME OF THESE MAY REMAIN STRONG/POSSIBLY
SEVERE...OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD WANE INTO MID/LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER.. 12/13/2012

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