ACUS03 KWNS 100816
SWODY3
SPC AC 100815
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA INCREASES CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN
A SPLITTING BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
BUT OF TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE SOUTHERN ONE STILL IS FORECAST TO
BE THE MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN BAJA. A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY FORM NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THE LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH MAY BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES PROPAGATING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. AS ALL OF THIS
OCCURS...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING
DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER
STATES...WHILE REMNANT UPPER TROUGHING RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... AND EAST OF
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THE SPEED OF THIS LATTER FEATURE COULD IMPACT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL LINGER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS. COUPLED WITH THE
RATHER MODEST NATURE OF THE ANTICIPATED VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 12/10/2012
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