Wednesday, December 5, 2012

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050830
SWODY3
SPC AC 050828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST WED DEC 05 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN -- FEATURING SLOW AMPLIFICATION OF BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CONUS -- IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED DAY
3...WITH A LARGE/LONGWAVE TROUGH TO COVER NEARLY ALL OF NOAM BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WSW-TO-ENE-ORIENTED COLD FRONT NEAR THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE EXPANDING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD
ACROSS S CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. WITH TIME. GRADUAL MOISTENING/WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...ARKLATEX REGION NEWD TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
AS MOISTENING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY TRANSIENT/DISORGANIZED...A FEW CLUSTERS OF
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE THREAT AREA -- AIDED BY
MODERATELY STRONG/WEAKLY VEERING FLOW ALOFT ON THE SERN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
-- PARTICULARLY WITH NEWD EXTENT -- LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
DECOUPLED...IT WOULD APPEAR ATTM THAT SURFACE-BASED WIND/TORNADO
THREAT WOULD REMAIN MUTED. MAIN POTENTIAL WOULD APPEAR TO BE A
COUPLE OF MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS...BUT GIVEN NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL INTRODUCE 5% PROBABILITY/SEE TEXT
FORECAST ATTM.

..GOSS.. 12/05/2012

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