DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120956
SWOD48
SPC AC 120955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST WED DEC 12 2012

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER JET INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE U.S. BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
...AS ANOTHER STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET NOSES INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC
...AND ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ONE OR MORE
INSTANCES OF STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT COULD BECOME CAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...THE
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA CONCERNING
THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS MUCH TOO LARGE
TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE RISK FOR ONE OF THESE EVENTS...AND
GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA. IT DOES
SEEM...THOUGH...THAT GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARD A
ROUGH CORRIDOR ACROSS LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...INTO THE CAROLINAS...EITHER LATE THIS WEEKEND OR SOMETIME
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

..KERR.. 12/12/2012

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