DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220959
SWOD48
SPC AC 220958

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SRN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND IN THE
LOWER MS VALLEY FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE EXIT
REGION OF A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD ASCENT. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
MAY ENABLE A SQUALL-LINE TO ORGANIZE AND QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. IT
APPEARS THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM SE TX
EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LA...MS ...AL AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.

AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. AN
ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT COULD OCCUR IF A LINEAR MCS OR A CLUSTER OF
SEVERE STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT ISSUE AN OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE
CAROLINAS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS A BIT GREATER CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...THE
MODELS MOVE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL U.S. THIS
COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY AGAIN ON FRIDAY/DAY 7 BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
RANGE.

..BROYLES.. 12/22/2012

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