DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270958
SWOD48
SPC AC 270957

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST THU DEC 27 2012

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES. THE EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4 WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ON MONDAY/DAY
5...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH THE WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS DRIVES THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOPS A LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF CLOSES AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARKLATEX REGION
BY ONE TO TWO DAYS WITH THE SYSTEM COMING OUT DURING THE MID-WEEK
TIMEFRAME. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AND DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE SRN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..BROYLES.. 12/27/2012

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