Wednesday, December 5, 2012

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050935
SWOD48
SPC AC 050935

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST WED DEC 05 2012

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW DECENT BETWEEN-MODEL CONSISTENCY INTO THE
DAY 6 TIME FRAME /MON. 12-10/...DEPICTING A CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION
OF CENTRAL U.S. TROUGHING -- EVENTUALLY CULMINATING IN THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EWD/OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL PROGRESSION INTO EARLY DAY 6...DIFFERENCES INCREASE
DRASTICALLY AFTERWARD WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND APPROACHES THE EAST COAST.

GIVEN THIS CONTINUED MODEL INCONSISTENCY -- BOTH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MODELS FROM RUN-TO-RUN...THE OBVIOUS
UNPREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO CONFIDENT
CONVECTIVE FORECASTS...PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 5 /SUN. 12-9/.

SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS DAY
4 /SAT. 12-8/...AND THEN EXPANDING INTO THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS AND WRN GULF COAST REGION DAY 5...AS FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS DAY 4 SHIFTS NEWD DAY 5 ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE -- ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL SURGE TO OCCUR. WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...GENERAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE. ATTM HOWEVER...WILL OPT NOT TO
INTRODUCE ANY THREAT AREAS SUGGESTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
EVENT...AS SUCH A SCENARIO CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY.

..GOSS.. 12/05/2012

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