ACUS11 KWNS 090747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090746
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-091015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CST SUN DEC 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AR...WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 090746Z - 091015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOW-END SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
ACROSS CNTRL AR...AND MAY SPREAD INTO WRN TN LATER THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
PERSISTS ACROSS CNTRL AR...WITH INDICATIONS OF SMALL SEVERE HAIL
CORES. STRONG WIND PROFILES ARE ALSO SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE
AT TIMES. A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST...AND COULD SHIFT EWD
WITH TIME BUT INTENSITIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY WEAKER FARTHER E AS
STORMS GET FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR.
ALTHOUGH SOME ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED...THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED
AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...COLD DOWNDRAFTS
AND FAST MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 12/09/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 34629382 35628968 35438945 35108944 34898963 34369315
34359358 34369373 34489394 34629382
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