MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2147

ACUS11 KWNS 101007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101007
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA INTO SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101007Z - 101200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS LA AND INTO WRN MS. AREA WIND
PROFILERS SHOW STRONG FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...AND
RADAR SHOWS SOME TENDENCY FOR BOWING STRUCTURES. WITH UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE...INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR
CONTINUED STRONG STORMS...AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR.

AHEAD OF THE LINE...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RELATIVELY HIGHER
PRESSURE FALLS WHERE UNSTABLE AIR IS MOVING NWD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THESE COULD
POSE AN ISOLATED/WEAK TORNADO THREAT BEFORE MERGING WITH THE FRONT.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
STORMS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 12/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29679387 30879264 32109113 32439043 32488944 32398894
32078875 31508874 30168994 29159133 29429241 29649330
29679387

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