ACUS11 KWNS 110435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110434
FLZ000-110600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 110434Z - 110600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH 06Z.
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG
THE SWRN FL COAST WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LIGHTNING
FREQUENCY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS NOTED. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
SRN FL IS VERY MOIST AND HAS LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH MID
70S DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING 2000-2300 J/KG MLCAPE PER 00Z RAOBS FROM
MIAMI AND KEY WEST. INFLOW OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND A WEAK CAP SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE FL PENINSULA NEXT
FEW HOURS. WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 5 KM ARE MODEST /20-25 KT/ BUT
INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE THIS LEVEL TO SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE WHICH COULD PROMOTE
BOWING SEGMENTS AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS. LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT ARE THE
MODEST WINDS AND MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH 5 KM.
..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 12/11/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...
LAT...LON 25958161 26308129 26458070 26268046 25858058 25678102
25958161
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