DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111623
SWODY1
SPC AC 111621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST FRI JAN 11 2013

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS
WILL EJECT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES NEWD
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A STALLING FRONT DRAPED
FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO MS/LA WILL WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEWD FROM CO TO THE MN ARROWHEAD...WITH A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AS A LLJ INTENSIFIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL U.S.
ISOLD-WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM PARTS OF NERN TX TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY
PRIMARILY IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT TO PRE-DAWN HOURS. DESPITE STRONG
DEEP SWLY FLOW...BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED /AOB 500 J/KG MUCAPE/
AND PRECLUDE LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES.

..SMITH/HART.. 01/11/2013

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