DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201943
SWODY1
SPC AC 201941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2013

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN NEW ENGLAND/NY...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT AIDED IN SPORADIC TSTMS EARLIER
TODAY HAS NOW REACHED THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN QUEBEC. WITH
LARGE-SCALE DESCENT AND LOW-LEVEL CAA IN ITS WAKE...TSTM
PROBABILITIES ARE EFFECTIVELY MINIMAL IN THE CONUS.

..GRAMS.. 01/20/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH
MON...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED/STNRY RIDGE ALONG THE W CST...AND S
OF ELONGATED VORTEX OVER CNTRL/ERN CANADA. MAIN BRANCH OF THE WLYS
WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT SRN FRINGE OF THE CANADIAN VORTEX. POTENT JET
STREAK WITHIN THIS FLOW...NOW ENTERING SW QUE...SHOULD CONTINUE
RAPIDLY E TO NRN ME BY EARLY AFTN...AND THEN ENE TO NEWFOUNDLAND
EARLY MON. THE FEATURE WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THAT BY THIS EVE WILL HAVE PROGRESSED WELL OFF THE N ATLANTIC CST.

...NRN NEW ENG THIS AFTN...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
NARROW BAND OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AS THAT
BOUNDARY SWEEPS E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NH AND NRN ME THROUGH MID
AFTN. WHILE LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...SUFFICIENT
MID-LVL MOISTURE MAY BE CARRIED EWD WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME TO MAINTAIN AN ARC OF
RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION/POTENTIAL THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO PATH OF STRONGEST DCVA SURGING E WITH THE
IMPULSE. A STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD.

...NRN NY THROUGH AFTN...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO MAY PERSIST WITHIN LAKE-EFFECT
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE LEE OF LK ONTARIO...WHERE
DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW PARALLEL TO LONG AXIS OF THE LK WILL
MAXIMIZE LATENT HEAT FLUX. CAA AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER COULD YIELD A
LITTLE MORE DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES TOO COOL TO SUPPORT
APPRECIABLE CHARGE SEPARATION.

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