DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231924
SWODY1
SPC AC 231921

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CST WED JAN 23 2013

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
ACROSS THE U.S...WITH PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.

..KERR.. 01/23/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0928 AM CST WED JAN 23 2013/

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL SHOW MINIMAL CHANGE THROUGH THU...WITH
BROAD/DEEP VORTEX CONTINUING OVER CNTRL/ERN CANADA...DOWNSTREAM FROM
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE...DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS.

WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS SKIRTING THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
CANADIAN VORTEX...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE UPR GRT LKS
WILL CONTINUE SE INTO OH/PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...USHERING IN A
REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY...THE OH
VLY...AND THE GRT LKS.

STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING NNWLY LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER LK MI IN THE WAKE OF THE IMPULSE THIS EVE/EARLY THU
WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
PLUMES/SNOW BANDS OVER CNTRL/SRN LK MI AND THE ADJACENT NRN IL/NRN
IND SHORELINE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITHIN THESE PLUMES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TOO COLD FOR APPRECIABLE CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION.

ELSEWHERE...DRY LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND/OR WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD LIMIT BUOYANCY AT ALL LVLS AND PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

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