DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261954
SWODY1
SPC AC 261952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID...WITH ONLY A MINOR CHANGED NEEDED
TO ADD A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION TO AZ/NM. SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED...ENABLING A FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN AZ. LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING LEADS TO BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION...AND THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND EJECTS
NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.

..DISPIGNA/GUYER.. 01/26/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013/

...AZ/NM/FAR SWRN TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO TOWARD SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. MODEST CLOUD
TOP COOLING HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE REGION OF PRIMARY LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OVER SERN/EAST CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH. 12Z TUS SOUNDING EXHIBITED A SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILE WITH MINIMAL CAPE/SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
SERN AZ INTO SWRN NM AS MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THIS MAY PERMIT A FEW BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER WHERE
ASSOCIATED DIABATIC HEATING CAN BE ENHANCED. HOWEVER...OVERALL
LIGHTNING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT OUTLOOK OF NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS ACROSS THIS
REGION.

...SRN OREGON/NRN CA COASTAL AREAS
A COLD UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SEWD OFF THE NRN PACIFIC COAST AS ONE
VORTICITY MAX LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NWRN WA AND SWRN BC...AND A SECOND
VORTICITY MAX MOVES ESEWD OFF THE SRN OREGON/NRN CA COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITHIN THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. NWP GUIDANCE
INDICATES COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /LESS THAN -30C AT 500 MB/
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD INLAND AS THE VORTICITY MAX
MOVES TOWARD NRN CA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST AND MOVES ONSHORE...BUT PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS.

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