DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270555
SWODY1
SPC AC 270553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHWEST/SRN GREAT BASIN...
LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION NEAR PEAK HEATING. SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES NEAR 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND KEEP EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES
RATHER WARM...THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TSTM TRENDS OBSERVED
ON SATURDAY.

...MID MS VALLEY...
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE SRN
PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS KS AND
SWRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING NEWD OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY AS THE SFC LOW ALSO MOVES NEWD. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.

...S TX/TX COASTAL BEND...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL LIMIT OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL
WITH MOST CONVECTIVE STORMS REMAINING TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD EXISTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. AS SUCH...A SMALL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN DELINEATED OVER S
TX/TX COASTAL BEND.

..MOSIER/BROYLES.. 01/27/2013

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