DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281958
SWODY1
SPC AC 281956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL OK...

...NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK...SERN KS AND WRN MO...

MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z IN CORRIDOR
FROM NWRN TX THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
EVOLVING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT THE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER
WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND WIND
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. IN OK LAPSE RATES /THOUGH
NOT LARGE/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY/EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL.

..DIAL.. 01/28/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...
A BROAD SWATH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN TX AND OK...AS WELL AS
LA/AR. THE NWD SPREAD OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO ERN KS AND MO...WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS WELL TO
THE WEST OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND
THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE FELT ACROSS THE PLAINS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TX
ACROSS WRN OK INTO ERN KS. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY TONIGHT FROM ERN OK INTO SE
KS/WRN MO ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH CONVECTION ROOTED
VERY NEAR THE GROUND. THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM NW TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK AS THE PRIMARY
WAVE BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE. FORECAST WIND PROFILES AND
WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

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