Wednesday, January 2, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030054
SWODY1
SPC AC 030052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST WED JAN 02 2013

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU AND ADJACENT U.S. BORDER AREAS...DOWNSTREAM OF A
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT MODELS SUGGEST WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE FORECAST
TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AROUND EL PASO TX INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF VERY WEAK CAPE
IN THE LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -20C.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST LAYER FROM WHICH THE LIFTED PARCELS EMANATE IS
ALSO WELL BELOW 0C. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE CAPE...AND
UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL SUPERCOOLED WATER
THAT WILL BECOME AVAILABLE...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
STILL SEEM BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

..KERR.. 01/03/2013

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