Thursday, January 17, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171615
SWODY1
SPC AC 171613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST THU JAN 17 2013

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRANSLATE E/NEWD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW OVER NRN GA IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD NEAR THE SC/NC COAST BY EVENING ALONG A
STALLED WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONT WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING EWD. THE STEEPENING OF INITIALLY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /REFERENCE 12Z CHS RAOB/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW...WILL SEEMINGLY AID IN FOSTERING A LOW TOPPED BAND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS EWD THROUGH THE
SC COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SRN COASTAL NC. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND...WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS RELEGATED OFFSHORE...PRECLUDING LOW SEVERE WIND
PROBABILITIES.

..SMITH/HART.. 01/17/2013

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