Tuesday, January 8, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090049
SWODY1
SPC AC 090047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2013

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX AND
THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...

...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX AND THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO JUST S
AND W OF THE TX BIG BEND...WITH THIS MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
AREA...WHERE INCREASING QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ONGOING.

EVENING RAOBS -- EVEN FROM COASTAL AREAS WHERE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EVIDENT -- REVEAL THAT INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND
THAT STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED...AND THUS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS
ATTM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TIME SUCH THAT
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO -- MAY EVOLVE. WITH SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS...MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK APPEARS
WARRANTED ATTM...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS E OF A SSW-NNE BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY LRD /LAREDO TX/ TO LFK /LUFKIN TX/.

..GOSS.. 01/09/2013

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