Thursday, January 24, 2013

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241727
SWODY2
SPC AC 241725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN U.S. WITHIN THE FASTER BELT OF
FLOW. HERE...ONE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND WITH TIME...WHILE
FARTHER W A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK/NERN PACIFIC SHIFTS SEWD
TOWARD THE PAC NW.

WITHIN THE SLOWER SRN STREAM...A LOW/TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH CA/BAJA CA...WHILE FLAT CYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S./WRN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH A GENERALLY COOL/STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS E OF THE ROCKIES...AN ASSOCIATED LACK OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION AS
ELEVATED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
ROUGHLY H7 TO H5 INTERACT...BUT ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE IS NOT EXPECTED. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE WRN
U.S. -- BOTH COASTAL AREAS OF THE PAC NW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING NRN
STREAM TROUGH...AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA AND POSSIBLY EWD INTO
PARTS OF SRN NV/AZ AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM FEATURE. AGAIN
HOWEVER...ANY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED --
REMAINING BELOW 10% THRESHOLD FOR ISSUANCE OF A THUNDER AREA.

..GOSS.. 01/24/2013

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