DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091637
SWODY2
SPC AC 091636

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 AM CST WED JAN 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TX NEWD ACROSS OK. A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKLATEX BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING
NEWD ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z THU ALONG THE MS RIVER FROM ERN AR SWD
INTO LA SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY PROFILES WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW
500 J/KG. IN SPITE OF THIS...0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE FROM
NEAR 40 KT IN LA TO AROUND 50 KT IN ERN AR. THIS MAY SUPPORT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY ROTATE AND HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF SFC
TEMPS CAN WARM ENOUGH ALONG THE MOIST AXIS.

..BROYLES.. 01/09/2013

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