DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090536
SWODY2
SPC AC 090534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE THAT UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL FINALLY EJECT
NEWD DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
SWRN U.S. STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT REGARDING THE NWD
ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH PW PLUME ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EXHIBIT PSEUDO-ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD YIELD MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 600
J/KG...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT POOR LAPSE RATES
AND SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION MAY PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE ONE
OR MORE LINEAR BANDS FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD THE WIND SHIFT. IF SFC DEW
POINTS ARE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 THEN BUOYANCY
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED AND THE PROSPECT FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE. FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BUT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..DARROW.. 01/09/2013

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