MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0046

ACUS11 KWNS 240132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240132
ORZ000-WAZ000-240530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CST WED JAN 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WA...NERN ORE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 240132Z - 240530Z

SUMMARY...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.05 INCH POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK /CURRENTLY DEMARCATED BY A N-S ORIENTED PRECIPITATION BAND
ACROSS WRN WA AND ORE/ IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS IT DOES...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS SERN
WA AND NERN ORE. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING
WITH RECENT SOUNDING DATA AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATING A WARM LAYER
/850 MB TEMPS FROM 2 TO 5 DEG C/ OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LIKELY
COOL THE WARM LAYER ALOFT ENOUGH FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
FREEZING RAIN WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH
POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 01/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON 45832055 46292030 46791961 46911823 46771727 46121730
45591781 45261832 44991905 45012013 45392065 45832055

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