MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0048

ACUS11 KWNS 251743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251743
NCZ000-SCZ000-252145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 251743Z - 252145Z

SUMMARY...A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...COMMENCING BY AROUND 20-21Z...WHICH
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE
CHARLOTTE...WINSTON-SALEM...FAYETTEVILLE AND RALEIGH-DURHAM
METROPOLITAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRENGTHENING OF WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THIS LOW-LEVEL JET /TO
55-65 KT/ IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-22Z...WITH THE JET CORE ELONGATING
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THIS LIKELY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND
BROAD...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ABOVE A LINGERING
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS. AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SATURATE...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BUT
WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN. SIZABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS
MAY ALSO HINDER PRECIPITATION RATES INITIALLY...BUT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF PRECIPITATION RATES UP TO AROUND .10
INCH PER HOUR...SIGNIFICANT ICING APPEARS POSSIBLE ON VEGETATION...
POWER LINES AND MOST UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES.

..KERR.. 01/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 35588074 36038017 36297952 36407867 36377742 35797736
35247833 34797930 34818024 35168084 35588074

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