ACUS11 KWNS 291754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291754
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-291930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MO...W-CNTRL/SWRN
IL...N-CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291754Z - 291930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO INTO S-CNTRL
OK...WHILE LEADING WAA AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SWRN MO/NWRN AR.
A LEWP STRUCTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OVER HICKORY/BENTON
COUNTIES MO IS TRACKING ENEWD AROUND 50 KT...AND SHOULD EXIT WW6
AROUND 19Z IF IT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR FORWARD MOTION. TRANSIENT
MESOCYCLONES HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE...AND ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES -- BOWS/SUPERCELLS -- WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE AND WITHIN SEMI-DISCRETE LEADING CONVECTION.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OVER 60 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND AROUND 375 M2/S2
OF EFFECTIVE SRH PER 18Z SGF RAOB. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
OFFSET ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEPICTED BY THE RAOB. AS SUCH...DMGG
WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT INCREASING AFTER 19Z.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 38929249 39739180 39989086 39678985 38088952 36879004
35869156 35909324 37629260 38929249
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