DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181626
SWODY1
SPC AC 181624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX
REGION...

...ARKLATEX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CO/NM. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...A COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK AND WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE HELPING TO
TRANSPORT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF EAST
TX/WEST LA AND EVENTUALLY INTO MUCH OF AR. BROKEN CLOUDS IN THIS
REGION WILL YIELD A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-700 J/KG AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
SOUTHEAST OK/WESTERN AR AND NORTHEAST TX BY 21-00Z...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
DESPITE RATHER LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

..HART/MOSIER.. 02/18/2013

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