DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251631
SWODY1
SPC AC 251629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR E TX/ARKLATEX THROUGH
THE LWR MS VLY TO THE ERN GULF CST REGION/GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT W TX UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS N TX TODAY BEFORE
TURNING NE OVER THE ARKLATEX TNGT AND REACHING NE AR EARLY TUE. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK DROPS SE
ACROSS WA/ORE INTO THE GRT BASIN.

SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO TX SYSTEM...NOW NEAR WICHITA
FALLS/ABILENE...SHOULD FURTHER OCCLUDE AS IT TRACKS E INTO SW AR
THIS EVE AND THEN NE TO THE MO BOOTHEEL EARLY TUE. FRONTAL ZONE
TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD INTENSIFY AS POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR
OVER THE HIGH PLNS SWEEPS EWD AND REACHES PACIFIC COLD FRONT NOW
OVER E TX. THE STRENGTHENED BOUNDARY SHOULD ACCELERATE E ACROSS THE
LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST STATES OVERNIGHT...REACHING WRN GA/THE ERN
FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z TUE.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STNRY FRONT NOW EXTENDING W-E ACROSS THE FAR NRN
GULF/N CNTRL FL SHOULD DRIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AND TNGT AS
HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTHENING LWR TROPOSPHERIC SSWLY FLOW OVERSPREAD
REGION AHEAD OF TX LOW. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER PARTS
OF LA...SRN MS/AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND PROBABLY SRN GA BETWEEN NOW
AND 12Z TUE.

BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND THE WARM FRONT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL
ASCENT/TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
LIKELY WILL BE SVR.

...FAR E TX/ARKLATEX TO CNTRL/ERN GULF CST REGION THROUGH TUE...
CURRENT SFC DATA SHOW NRN GULF OF MEXICO FRONT BEGINNING TO EDGE NWD
AS A WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SE TX/SW LA. MARITIME AIR S OF
THE BOUNDARY IS AMPLY WARM AND MOIST TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS...WITH PW
AROUND 1.25-1.50 INCHES. COMBINATION OF UPLIFT ALONG THE
STRENGTHENING E TX COLD FRONT...MODEST SFC HEATING...AND INCREASING
UPR DIVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TX UPR LOW SHOULD SUPPORT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER FAR E TX AND LA
LATER TODAY AS EML CAP IS BREACHED.

WHILE LINEAR FORCING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND TEMPORARY BACKING OF
700 MB FLOW AHEAD OF TX LOW...WILL FAVOR SQLN CONVECTIVE
MODE...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN EXPECTED
STRENGTHENING OF SW TO SSWLY DEEP SHEAR TO AOA 70 KTS. IN
ADDITION...SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE SQLN ALONG REMNANT SECTIONS OF THE
WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/SRN MS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT. SVR
HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE NEAR WARM
FRONT.

FARTHER E...IN STRENGTHENING WSWLY MID LVL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM TX
UPR LOW...SATELLITE AND UPR AIR DATA SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING WRN AL. CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF
THIS FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING AND LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM/STNRY FRONT...MAY SUPPORT A SEPARATE AREA OF
SVR POTENTIAL THIS AFTN FROM ERN PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO NERN
FL AND FAR S GA. WITH AMPLE DEEP SHEAR AND ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR
NEAR BOUNDARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL...LOCALLY
DMGG WIND...AND ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

LATER TNGT THROUGH EARLY TUE THE SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE FROM FAR
SRN MS/AL INT PARTS OF GA/NW FL AS ENE PROGRESSION OF THE TX UPR LOW
ALLOWS MID LVL FLOW TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER ATOP WARM FRONT OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF CST REGION. CONTINUED OCCLUSION OF THE MAIN SFC LOW
MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT SFC WAVE OVER SRN AL OR THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE THAT COULD SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL ASCENT/SHEAR AS
THAT FEATURE MOVES NE INTO GA EARLY TUE. A STRONG TORNADO COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT INVOF THE LOW OR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD
SURFACE-BASED MARITIME AIR SPREAD INLAND WITH IT.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 02/25/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.