DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041930
SWODY1
SPC AC 041927

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CST MON FEB 04 2013

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...N AND E TX...SRN LA...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF N AND E TX AHEAD OF A WEAK SEWD MOVING COLD
FRONT. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS N TX. THE TIMING OF PASSAGE OF AN
UPSTREAM UPPER IMPULSE /POSITIONED OVER W TX AS OF 1900Z/ COULD
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WANE ACROSS MUCH OF
N/E TX AFTER 00Z...BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO COASTAL TX AND
EVENTUALLY SRN LA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..ROGERS/BUNTING.. 02/04/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST MON FEB 04 2013/

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
AN ARC OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS AND WWD TO SRN CA PER
LATE-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...RELATIVELY STRONGER DCVA WILL LEAD THOSE VORT MAXIMA
ADVANCING THROUGH FASTER AND BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NERN
QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUXES/WAA WILL
BE RELATIVELY MORE ENHANCED FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EWD-SHIFTING AND VEERING
LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM. AS SUCH...STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE OUTPACING A 1.0-1.2-INCH PW PLUME THAT EXTENDS
NWD FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE SRN PLAINS PER GPS DATA. THIS HAS
ALREADY BEEN MANIFESTED IN DIMINISHED LIGHTNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRECIPITATION FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE OZARKS.

THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODIFICATIONS TO
THE 12Z FWD RAOB AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
FROM S-CNTRL/SERN OK SWD TO THE GULF COAST AND EWD ACROSS SRN
LA...PARTLY OWING TO WEAK ASCENT EMANATING FROM /1/ DCVA LEADING THE
WRN EXTENSION OF THE ARC OF MID-LEVEL VORT MAXIMA...AND /2/
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEWD-MOVING SFC FRONT. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOW...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO
THE GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFTER SUNSET.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

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