DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181702
SWODY2
SPC AC 181700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN U.S...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL GLANCE THE SERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL ZONE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ONGOING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES WHERE MARGINAL
ELEVATED BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
BREACHING LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING. EVEN SO TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF PRECIPITATION AND
UPDRAFTS/LIGHTNING SHOULD WEAKEN AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS.


...TX...

PRE-FRONTAL LOBE OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WRN FRINGE OF CNTRL U.S. ANTICYCLONE. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND GRADUALLY MOISTENING PROFILES SHOULD ENHANCE THE
RISK FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AFTER DARK.

...CA...

VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD SEWD BENEATH UPPER LOW
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NRN CA COAST INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
TUESDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD
SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR A FEW WEAK TSTMS BOTH ALONG THE COAST AND WITHIN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CA.

..DARROW.. 02/18/2013

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