DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231758
SWODY2
SPC AC 231756

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2013

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO REVERSE THUNDER LINE IN SOUTH TX

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
CNTRL GULF COAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
FROM THE HOUSTON AREA EWD TO NEAR MOBILE AL. MOISTURE ADVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SBCAPE CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS BY 06Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO WARM ADVECTION. THE INCREASING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH ROTATING
STORMS THAT PERSIST AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...WCNTRL TX/SW OK...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SWRN STATES
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...THE EXIT REGION OF A WELL-FOCUSED 80 TO 95 KT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DUE A
LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN OK SUNDAY EVENING SWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SW OK AND NW TX AT 03Z MONDAY
SHOW SOME CAPE MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB WITH MID-LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT IN SPITE OF A COOL
BOUNDARY LAYER. A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WCNTRL TX AND THE TX HILL COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WHERE MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AND SFC TEMPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER.

..BROYLES.. 02/23/2013

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