MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0129

ACUS11 KWNS 092317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092316
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-100115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 092316Z - 100115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SOME
THIS EVENING...BUT VERY MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
STORM RISK. A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY THIS EVENING...BUT
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY PEAKED FROM THE
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN KS...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S NEAR GLD TO THE MID 40S NEAR CDS. WEAK SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY IS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-40...THOUGH SOME NWD
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
SPREADS NWD.

THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH/SPEED MAX IS ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN NM/TX BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE BY ABOUT 02-03Z...WHICH WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT. THUS...A FEW LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES SOME. STILL...VERY WEAK BUOYANCY IN
THE FACE OF VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND ANY ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...AND A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY.

..THOMPSON/KERR.. 02/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34840037 34340044 34060083 34090121 35060125 36000140
36670153 37790165 38540166 39250171 39520155 39590123
39350097 38640075 37020070 34840037

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