MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0140

ACUS11 KWNS 101858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101857
WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-110000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NRN MN...NWRN WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 101857Z - 110000Z

SUMMARY...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NWD AHEAD OF A CYCLONE POSITIONED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. RATES OF
1-1.5 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN ND...NRN MN...AND
FAR NWRN WI.

DISCUSSION...18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW NEAR KSUX...WITH AN
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING S-SEWD ACROSS SWRN IA AND WRN MO.
IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECT AN ASSOCIATED MATURE UPPER
CYCLONE...WITH AN ATTENDANT SWATH OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING N-NEWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN
THE WRN BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
DCVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WITHIN
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT OF RATES MAY OCCUR AS MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CO-LOCATED WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. AN ABRUPT
CESSATION TO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SWATH LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DRY AIR INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONE...BUT ENHANCED RATES
SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA THROUGH 00Z.

..ROGERS.. 02/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46199589 46259693 46549759 48619766 48919699 48599388
47959164 46519039 45869053 45299115 45239188 45839391
46199589

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