MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0166

ACUS11 KWNS 181930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181929
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX TO WESTERN AR/NORTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181929Z - 182130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK/FAR WESTERN AR
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED TSTMS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST TX WHERE CELLULAR CU IS READILY
EVIDENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER IS ONLY MODEST MOIST/UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CLOUD BREAKS
AND THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX. WSR-88D VWPS ARE INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND PROFILES...ACCENTUATED BY 60+ KT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ATOP SOUTHERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO...ALTHOUGH MERGING LINE SEGMENTS WITH SMALL BOWS WILL
EVOLVE AS THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..GUYER/HART.. 02/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 36109447 35249336 34239280 32259330 31639405 31459454
31279567 32329643 36109447

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