MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0219

ACUS11 KWNS 251525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251525
LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-251630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0925 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX INTO SRN AR/LA/SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251525Z - 251630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HAIL POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN
DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WW WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING EWD ACROSS NWRN
TX ATTM...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION INVOF CDS
/CHILDRESS TX/ AND THE SURFACE LOW NOW JUST N OF ABI /ABILENE TX/.

S OF THE SURFACE LOW...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES SURGING EWD
THROUGH E TX...WHILE THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS
E TX TO THE VICINITY OF LCH /LAKE CHARLES LA/.

WITH ONLY A SLIVER OF LOW-LEVEL GULF AIR INLAND ATTM -- OVER THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA AND VICINITY...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RESIDE ATOP A SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
ONGOING INVOF THIS AREA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT HAIL POTENTIAL.

WITH TIME...AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT. WITH TIME...EXPECT THE NOW-STABLE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE OVER LA TO BE REPLACED BY A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER -- AND GIVEN VEERING/STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER IN ADDITION TO THE
ONGOING HAIL THREAT. ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL --
PARTICULARLY IF A LINE OF STORMS EVOLVES ALONG THE PACIFIC
FRONT...ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 02/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29249467 30269452 31569459 34209407 33989260 33399145
31358960 28998988 28829122 29369292 29249467

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