Thursday, March 14, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140538
SWODY1
SPC AC 140536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN U.S. BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD DURING THE PERIOD. A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SERN STATES WILL BUILD SEWD AND MAINTAIN INFLUX OF DRY CP AIR
OVER THE GULF RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

BAND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH MN...WRN WI
AND NERN IA EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE VORT
MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...SUGGESTING SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT 10% OR GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL/MOSIER.. 03/14/2013

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