DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300545
SWODY1
SPC AC 300543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PERSISTS OFF THE WEST COAST...A GENERAL W/NWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES. A SERIES OF
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL EJECT E/SEWD ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL CONUS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING THE SRN CA/NRN
BAJA CA COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS EWD...UNDERCUTTING THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE
SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SAT NIGHT. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN
THE SRN PLAINS WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU.

...LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS BUT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND W/SWWD TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF MCS/S WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SAT FROM PARTS OF
TEXARKANA/OZARK PLATEAU NWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH
SOME STRONGER CORES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE
COMPLEXES...SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY SHOULD
MITIGATE ROBUST DIURNAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD MARGINAL HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WRN FLANK. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SERVE TO REINFORCE THE QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
PROBABLY YIELD A PRONOUNCED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BY
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NE/SW-ORIENTED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK. BUT
SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE N-CNTRL
CONUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS FORMING LATE DAY
IN SERN KS/NERN OK. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEAK AND DIVERGENT WITH SRN
EXTENT TOWARDS S-CNTRL OK...BREEDING SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY TSTMS ALONG THE RED RIVER DESPITE PRESENCE OF
MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL MLCIN BY LATE DAY. STILL...A
TSTM OR TWO COULD FORM ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WOULD
POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. A MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS /CENTERED
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE/ TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE
WILL STRENGTHEN...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSES APPROACHING FROM
AZ/NM AND THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE BUOYANCY
AXIS...A FEW TSTMS WITH SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS/DEAN.. 03/30/2013

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