DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220029
SWODY1
SPC AC 220027

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH...
TSTM INITIATION HAS FAILED THUS FAR ALONG THE DRYLINE SE OF A
SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS MLCIN RAPIDLY INCREASES AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS ACROSS THE NARROW JUXTAPOSITION OF 70S SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN PARTS OF THE TX BIG
COUNTRY/LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING ELEVATED
TSTM COVERAGE NE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT /CURRENTLY ARCING FROM
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NERN TX/. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
APPEARED TOO HIGH WITH 00Z SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUSPECT THAT
MUCAPE MAY BE OVERDONE TONIGHT. OVERLAYING 00Z DFW/OUN RAOBS ALONG
WITH GRADUAL WARM SECTOR MOISTENING WILL PROBABLY YIELD MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAP IN SERN OK TO THE
ARKLATEX. NW-SE ORIENTED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD FORM HERE...WITH
SUFFICIENT CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITHIN STRONGER CORES.

..GRAMS.. 03/22/2013

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