DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281243
SWODY1
SPC AC 281241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT ERN PAC TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT CA
2-3 DAYS FROM NOW. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE EMBEDDED WAVES WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WRN US RIDGE THROUGH TOMORROW. POCKETS OF
MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO ERN ORE...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION GIVEN THE BACKGROUND PATTERN OF
HEIGHT RISES AND VERY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY.

MEANWHILE...NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST. ONE APPARENT WEAK WAVE OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE OVER NW TX AND OK BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT INVOF A STALLED FRONT FROM THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS NW OK INTO SE KS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE S/SE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THE MORE
PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FORM TONIGHT
FROM NRN OK INTO SE KS AND SW MO...IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE
NOSE OF A 25-30 KT SLY/SWLY LLJ.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/28/2013

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