DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290558
SWODY2
SPC AC 290557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK...ERN
KS...AND NRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST FROM THE CNTRL STATES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS A LARGE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SWD ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVEL SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE OH VALLEY BY SUN
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...EXTENDING
FROM WI INTO WRN OK BY 00Z. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL HELP
MAINTAIN MID 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM ERN KS SWD INTO
TX...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

...OK...NRN TX...SERN KS...WRN AR...
A COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN SEVERE STORM EVOLUTION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND-DRIVEN HAIL OVER A LARGE AREA FROM SERN KS
INTO NRN TX.

SATURDAY MORNING...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WITH WLY 850 MB FLOW. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...AS IT WILL BE ON THE ERN
FRINGE OF THE STEEPER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.

DURING THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM ERN KS
INTO WRN OK AND INTO WRN TX. MODELS DISAGREE WITH DEGREE OF
HEATING...BUT THE NAM SUGGESTS VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
EXIST WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND DEVELOPS STORMS WITH THE SFC TROUGH BY
00Z. IF THIS OCCURS...SUPERCELLS AND SSEWD PROPAGATING CELL CLUSTERS
WOULD BE LIKELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPHS
MAY JUST BE LONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN
HAIL. STORM FORMATION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THE 00-03 TIME FRAME.
CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT WRN AR AS WELL AS THE RED RIVER REGION.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE GIVEN
THE WEAK FORCING...AND IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET WARM
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY ERODE CIN. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST
RELATIVE THREAT TO BE OVER SERN KS AND NERN OK LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2013

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