DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310512
SWODY2
SPC AC 310510

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT ROTATING AROUND AN ERN CANADA UPPER
LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD AND WILL EXTEND
ROUGHLY FROM NWRN TX EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE
DAY. S OF THIS FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S F WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES OVERNIGHT AND WILL HELP INDUCE SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
TX WHICH WILL ENHANCE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

...NWRN TX...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG HEATING S OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SWWD ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SERN NM/W TX. BACKED
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...WITH HAIL AND WIND
DEVELOPING. NAM SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG
WRN PORTION OF FRONT AND NEAR MOIST AXIS. CELLS WITH HAIL MAY
EVENTUALLY MERGE AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A SELY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY THUS OCCUR. WITH SUCH LOW
DEWPOINTS...MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.00 AND
1.75 INCHES.

..JEWELL.. 03/31/2013

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