DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 140658
SWODY2
SPC AC 140657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO ADD LESS THAN 5 % ALL AREAS TO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS SEWD
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE SFC
LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE NRN
EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND MOVE THIS CONVECTION EWD ALONG THE WARM
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
SRN IL EWD TO NRN KY AND SRN OH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT SHOW A SHARP SFC INVERSION NORTH OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. MUCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SMALL HAIL BUT THE HAIL THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO ADD A LOW END SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE CNTRL
ROCKIES BUT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EXIST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED.

..BROYLES.. 03/14/2013

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