DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 081726
SWODY2
SPC AC 081725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- PART OF LARGER TROUGH COMPRISED OF
PHASED NRN AND SRN STREAM COMPONENTS -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD
OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW /INITIALLY OVER
ERN CO/WRN KS/ AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT /INITIALLY TRAILING SWD
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX/ WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. BY SUNSET...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE APPROACHING CENTRAL KS WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
CENTRAL OK AND NWRN TX/THE HILL COUNTRY...AND THEN CONTINUING EWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
-- INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM KS SWD TO TX.

...SRN PLAINS...
ANY CONVECTION ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WRN OK/NWRN
TX SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE...AND IS LIKELY TO FURTHER WEAKEN THROUGH
THE DAY. MEANWHILE...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE LIKELY TO REACH
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE FROM SRN OK SWD ACROSS THE TX HILL
COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM
RE-INITIATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NWRN TX -- AND POSSIBLY NWD INTO
CENTRAL OK -- INVOF THE FRONT IN THE 21Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME...WITH
STORMS THEN DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.

WITH LOW-LEVEL VEERING OF THE FLOW FIELD TOPPED BY SWLYS INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT TO 60-PLUS KT AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH CAPPING LIKELY TO
CONFINE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO THE FRONTAL ZONE -- AND THUS
LINEAR ORGANIZATION LIKELY TO PREDOMINATE -- EXPECT LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- ESPECIALLY IN
THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND SWWD TOWARD THE
DEL RIO/COTULLA/LAREDO REGION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
SPREAD ACROSS THE KS/NEB REGION -- POSSIBLY ATOP LOCAL HEATING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN A WEAK DRY SLOT...AN AFTERNOON PEAK IN
SURFACE-BASED CAPE COULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF WRN
KS/S CENTRAL NEB. DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF HEATING/CAPE
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 03/08/2013

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