DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080602
SWODY2
SPC AC 080601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL TX TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AS AN 80 T0 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN KS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO WCNTRL TX. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE
MODELS ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A
SFC TROUGH FROM NEAR DALLAS-FORT WORTH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE TX
HILL COUNTRY WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY ERODE A CAPPING INVERSION AND INCREASE SBCAPE VALUES TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 60 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14 C COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND CELLS MATURE EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND
UPON STORM MODE.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN KS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM
DURING THE DAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW NEAR THE KS-NEB STATE LINE. THE EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL KS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD AID AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. MODEL
FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED STORMS ON THE NRN END OF AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER 50S F AND SBCAPE
VALUES COULD BE AROUND 500 J/KG. FOR THIS REASON...A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT...A THREAT FOR HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 03/08/2013

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