DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091727
SWODY2
SPC AC 091726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT UPPER LOW -- EMBEDDED WITHIN A POSITIVELY TILTED SRN
STREAM TROUGH -- IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS STEADILY NEWD FROM ITS
INITIAL POSITION IN THE KS VICINITY TO THE NWRN IL AREA BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW JUST E OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD/SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL SLIDE EWD INTO THE
MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS
THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY
11/12Z. THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM
SYSTEM...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AS A RESULT OF INSUFFICIENT
WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
LITTLE INSTABILITY -- OWING TO VERY WEAK SFC-H7 LAPSE RATES -- IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE MID
AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE PRE-FRONTAL SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OTHERWISE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ATTM SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL MAINTAIN THE
5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT ANY
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHLY LIMITED AT BEST.

..GOSS.. 03/09/2013

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