DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300659
SWODY3
SPC AC 300658

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING FROM THE MO AND MS VALLEY EWD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...EMERGING INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD/TUE MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL GENERALLY LIE FROM NWRN TX EWD
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO CNTRL MS/AL/GA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX.

...NWRN INTO CNTRL TX...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION S OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS CNTRL AND W CNTRL TX...WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG.
SURFACE WINDS WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FORCE STORMS ALONG THE
HEATED PORTION OF THE FRONT DESPITE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DURING
THE DAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODESTLY STRONG...AND WILL
FAVOR ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. A FEW CELLS COULD BE LONG LIVED.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD DURING THE EVENING...STORMS WILL
BECOME UNDERCUT AND ELEVATED...WITH ANY WIND THREAT WANING. THE HAIL
THREAT MAY PERSIST THOUGH AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WARM
ADVECTION ATOP THE FRONT.

...NERN TX...NRN LA...CNTRL MS...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN
TX...LA AND MS WITH STRONG HEATING. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS FAR E WILL BE WEAK...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...AND A STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE
MARGINAL HAIL OR A STRONG WIND GUST.

..JEWELL.. 03/30/2013

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