MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0290

ACUS11 KWNS 212226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212225
TXZ000-OKZ000-220100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212225Z - 220100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY AROUND 00Z FROM NWRN TX
INTO SWRN OK WITH A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH BASED CU IN THE DEEPLY
MIXED AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WLY WIND GUSTS. TO THE
E...A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM SJT TO JUST E OF ABI TO NEAR SPS.
WHILE A COOL A CLOUDY AIR MASS EXISTS E OF THE DRYLINE...A NARROW
ZONE OF HEATING WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS.

AS FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE
INCREASE...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS TCU NW OF MWL...WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED SUPERCELL TO FORM. IF THIS OCCURS...HAIL AROUND
SEVERE CRITERIA AS WELL AS STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER N INTO OK...SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
EXIST...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME HIGH BASED
CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL TEND TO MAXIMIZE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE.

..JEWELL/KERR.. 03/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32849769 32329797 32059830 32089907 32169920 32489932
32759928 33189919 33579920 33999933 34449975 34849997
35129996 35369977 35409945 35399921 35199883 34919841
34399800 34039775 33449758 32849769

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.