MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0305

ACUS11 KWNS 231953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231952
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-232115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58...

VALID 231952Z - 232115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS -- WITH SVR HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN -- PERSISTS ACROSS WW58.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A WAA REGIME...CONVECTION -- MOSTLY ELEVATED --
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE N-CNTRL/NERN GULF COAST
AND ADJACENT INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPECIAL 18Z RAOBS AT JAN AND LIX SUGGEST THAT 7-7.5 C/KM 700-500-MB
LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EML WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE WW AREA AS STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS 40-50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

SFC THETA-E DEFICITS ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING N OF A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT LYING ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MOBILE BAY TO
THE FL BIG BEND IS LIMITING THE NWD-EXPANSION OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
INFLOW LAYERS INLAND. HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE MAY PRODUCE DMGG WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL. ONE SUCH STORM COULD
IMPACT AREAS AROUND PANAMA CITY FL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED ABOVE A MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER -- SAMPLED BY THE 18Z JAN RAOB -- WITH THE STRONGEST
ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL.

..COHEN.. 03/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30658906 32658908 31358330 29338337 30658906

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.