ACUS11 KWNS 292052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292052
NEZ000-292215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292052Z - 292215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS ACROSS CNTRL NEB...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE TRAVERSING EWD
OUT OF WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CU COVERAGE ACROSS
SERN WY AND THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 50 E CDR SWD TO 40 W IML...WITH UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S F DEWPOINTS SLOWLY ADVECTING NWD INTO CNTRL NEB. DESPITE
MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AMPLE HEATING E OF THE SFC TROUGH
BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE YIELDED ESTIMATED MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF TOWERING CU
GROWING INCREASINGLY ROBUST OVER THE PAST HALF HR OVER THE FAR ERN
NEB PANHANDLE...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. MODEST VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT COMBINED
WITH 30 KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW /PER LNX VWP DATA/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
FOR MARGINALLY ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK
BUOYANCY...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF A WW ATTM.
..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 03/29/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41789973 41179983 40780009 40650132 40850196 41760206
42280196 42710147 42900102 42870022 42719984 41789973
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