MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0336

ACUS11 KWNS 300321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300321
NEZ000-KSZ000-300415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB / NW AND N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 300321Z - 300415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0400-0430Z BEFORE ONGOING STORMS DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM BUFFALO...KEARNEY...AND PHELPS COUNTIES
IN NEB TO SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NWRN KS WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION OF
285/25-30 KT. HAIL UP TO 1.0-1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE PAST HOUR AND A SIMILAR
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 0400-0430Z.

DOWNSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW
COOLED INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
EXPECT THE CONTINUED COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO RESULT IN A
STEADY ACCUMULATION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND A DECREASE IN
PARCEL BUOYANCY. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..MEAD.. 03/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39200043 39759974 40209943 40589912 40769825 40309798
39879805 39469822 39139868 38889912 38829962 38990023
39200043

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